While Yerevan seeks to normalize relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan and supports a U.S.-backed transport corridor, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to convince Iran that the project does not threaten its interests, Al-Monitor writes.
As the publication notes, Pashinyan was one of the few foreign leaders who visited Tehran this week and took part in mourning events following the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Until recently, such a move would have been seen as entirely natural. Alongside Russia, Iran had long remained one of Armenia’s main, albeit complicated, allies. Today, however, Yerevan is actively trying to move out of the Kremlin’s orbit and build strategic ties with the United States and the European Union, while also seeking long-term peace with its historic adversaries — Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran, Pashinyan’s visit may seem contradictory. However, this trip, which followed his July 6 visit to Yekaterinburg, where he met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, underscores the delicate balance the Armenian premier is forced to maintain in order to shield his small landlocked country from further upheaval.
Encouraged by its unexpected resilience in the face of strikes by the United States and Israel, Iran has begun to show greater confidence, including in relation to Armenia, with which it shares a 44-kilometer border.
This small stretch is strategically important for Iran’s access to the Black Sea and also gives the Islamic Republic leverage over another northern neighbor — Azerbaijan, which is a close ally of Israel.
One of the most sensitive issues in relations with Iran remains the so-called “Trump route” — TRIPP. Tehran fears that the project’s real aim is to physically cut Iran off from Armenia and Georgia, as well as to provide U.S. security contractors, who are expected to be tasked with guarding the route, with a foothold in the event of a future conflict.
It is therefore no surprise that Iran’s ambassador to Armenia raised the issue of TRIPP at a press conference. Recalling the recent nighttime U.S. strikes on Iran, the diplomat said:
“Iran’s entirely legitimate and logical concern about the presence of Americans on its borders must receive a clear answer.”
Analysts interviewed by Al-Monitor believe that Armenian diplomacy faces “an enormous mountain to climb.” In their view, Yerevan needs to establish dialogue with the Iranian side, understand its concerns and “red lines,” and also explain that this project is not directed against Iran and that Iran itself could also benefit from the opening of new transport routes.
This will require guarantees that Iran will retain access to the Black Sea, including by rail, and will also receive a certain share of participation in the project. However, such a scenario is hard to imagine, since the company created to implement the project is 74% owned by the United States and only 26% by Armenia.
According to the publication, the main problem for Armenia is not the risk of direct Iranian intervention — such a scenario is unlikely given Tehran’s current international isolation. A much more serious threat is the possibility that Turkey may still not open its land border with Armenia in the near future.
As a result, Armenia could end up with a transport corridor that would mainly serve the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Faced with such uncertainty, Pashinyan is forced to preserve relations with both Tehran and Moscow, even despite his desire to weaken Russia’s economic and military influence on Armenia.
