On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev ordered his forces to ethnically cleanse the remaining indigenous Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh despite promises just days earlier not to do so. More than 200 Armenians died as Azeri troops drove 120,000 ethnic Armenians off their land, razed graves, and vandalized or destroyed churches and monasteries. Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote this an article published on the Middle East Forum website.
According to Rubin, “Aliyev’s corruption has left the country impoverished, with a per capita income below hydrocarbon-poor Armenia and Georgia. There is hardly an advocate for Aliyev and Azerbaijan in the think tank or media communities, meanwhile, who does not somehow suckle on the teat of Azerbaijan’s caviar diplomacy, its dog-and-pony show junkets, inflated honoraria, and sidebar commercial dealings.”
“Azerbaijan is sensitive enough about democracy in Armenia, but to have democracy on territory it calls its own was too great a threat to Aliyev. Hence, after his troops stormed Artsakh, Aliyev arrested its elected leaders on various charges, including crimes against peace and humanity, war crimes, preparation and conduct of an aggressive war, genocide, violations of the laws and customs of war, terrorism, and the violent seizure of power,” Rubin added.
“The charges were preposterous and the trials even more so. Translators purposely mistranslated responses. Azerbaijan banned international observers and imposed Azerbaijani lawyers on the accused,” the analyst added.
“On February 5, 2026, the Baku Military Court sentenced the defendants to life in prison. Billionaire philanthropist Ruben Vardanyan, who had left his life of comfort to serve as a state minister in Artsakh [(Nagorno-Karabakh)] and once served on a board with former USAID administrator Samantha Power, likely will be sentenced in coming days,” Rubin noted
The analyst emphasizes that, “Nothing in Azerbaijan happens by chance; nor is the judiciary in any way independent of Aliyev. Therefore, the White House and the broader international community must consider the reasons for the court’s action now.”
“While [US] President Donald Trump takes pride in an Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, the dynamics of that process always raised questions about Aliyev’s sincerity. Throughout the negotiations (which began during the Biden administration), Aliyev would make humiliating and extreme demands,” Rubin stated.
“Aliyev also seeks to thumb his nose at the United States. His action comes as [US] Vice President JD Vance prepares to visit both Armenia and Azerbaijan. To now visit Baku, so soon after such a travesty of justice and provocation, would be to imply U.S. endorsement. What is at stake is not only Trump’s desire to cement peace in the South Caucasus, but also a commitment by Trump and Vance to protect Christian communities under siege,” the analyst wrote.
“Vance should continue to Yerevan, while his National Security Advisor Andy Baker, whose commitment to Armenian Christians is sincere and predates the Vance vice presidency, makes clear to Aliyev and his inner circle that the only way senior U.S. officials will visit Azerbaijan, now or in the future, is to bring home all the Armenian hostages, up to and including Ruben Vardanyan,” Michael Rubin concluded.
